By Nathan Baker
The Chicago Cubs sit six games out of a wildcard spot with two months to play, unlikely to make the playoffs with their rebuild stagnating. At the deadline, they traded away some assets, but question marks surrounded multiple areas of the team long-term. Starting pitching, bullpen and catcher all have doubts, but the Cubs got very little from their third basem*n this year.
Christopher Morel saw the bulk of the playing time at third, posting below replacement level numbers, primarily due to his horrific defense. A batting average under .200 and sky-high whiff and K rates motivated the Cubs to find a better option, especially when Patrick Wisdom provides many of the same issues.
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Isaac Paredes was always likely to be on the move with the Rays in full sell mode, with the Yankees and Dodgers rumored to be possible destinations. With a need at the position, the Cubs swooped in late, striking a deal for Paredes in exchange for Morel, Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson. On the surface, the Cubs acquired a 4-WAR player at a position of need with three more years of team control after this season, presenting as a sensible move. Red flags exist just beneath the surface, however, and the realization of these concerns could be enough to turn this trade into a disastrous one for the Cubs.
Paredes holds an excellent 130 WRC+ in 2024, after posting a 137 mark last season, yet is in the bottom quartile of the league in xBA, xSLG, avg. exit velocity, barrel %, hard hit % and bat speed. He’s outperformed his xSLG and xBA significantly for the second straight season, and the reason why is rather simple.
Paredes is prolific at pulling fly balls to straightaway left and down the line. He’s held over a 50% pull rate for the last two seasons, and hits the ball hard almost exclusively to the pull side. He’s become a master at hitting home runs just over the left field fence at Tropicana field, enough to hit 31 HR last year, with 16 so far this season.
The expected home run chart really exposes Paredes’ dependency on a short left-field wall to hit home runs. In the last two seasons, Paredes has 51 expected homers at Tropicana Field, compared to 36 at Wrigley Field. A 30% drop off in home runs is drastic, enough to explain most of the disparity in his expected statistics vs hard numbers. A regression to the expected stats would make Paredes a below average hitter, a huge jump from his current status as one of the better offensive third baseman in the game.
On the bright side, his defense is solid, and his bat control is excellent. Ranking in the 80th percentile or better in whiff rate, K rate and walk rate provides a floor of adequate OBP skills, even if the homers dry up.
My issue with this deal is the sacrifice of Morel, who still has huge power potential despite the swing-and-miss, combined with Hunter Bigge’s electric stuff (and to a lesser degree, Ty Johnson). Morel can hit them out of anywhere, and I’m sure the Rays will find him a spot, whether that’s as a more complete offensive player as a DH, or an acceptable defender in RF or 3B.
The fantasy impact on both of these players is huge for different reasons. As discussed with Paredes, the ballpark factor should result in a significant drop off in power, taking what was once a premium fantasy asset and making him just marginally valuable in smaller formats. For Morel, the Tampa Bay player development is of far greater importance than the ballpark. Don’t be surprised to see the Rays turn Morel into a 35 HR guy this year, and bring that average up quite a bit in the process.
Essentially, this provides a great buy low window for Morel, especially from owners frustrated with his inconsistency. Paredes should be sold high, maybe even to acquire Morel in the process. I’d expect most fantasy owners of Morel would be willing to offer a second player of some quality alongside Morel in exchange for Paredes; if so, it’s a no-brainer.
