You know how a week ago, I wrote that most of this year's prospect call-ups have let us down so far and there aren't many left to get excited about? Well, since then, the two most exciting have gone on the IL. We don't have a timetable for James Wood (hamstring) yet, but we know Junior Caminero (quadriceps) is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, which likely removes him from stash consideration in most of the leagues where he had it.
In order words, the Five on the Verge section of the Prospects Report, which was already stretched thin, is now virtually nonexistent. Something tells me you aren't hanging onto every Jackson Holliday at-bat, with as much as he let us down before, and presumably, Joey Loperfido and Tyler Black are even less of a draw. So let's just scrap it, why don't we?
Hopefully, some exciting new stashables will emerge in the next couple weeks, but in the meantime, we can size up the prospect pool in other ways. We can talk about risers, some of the relative no-names at the start of the year who've turned themselves into genuine assets. They may not be on the verge of a big-league debut (though one actually just made his), but they may still be available in deeper Dynasty leagues where the prospect pool is normally picked over.
I've decided to focus on pitchers this week, identifying 10 (listed alphabetically) who I think are deserving of our time. I'll do the same for hitters next week, unless call-up considerations come into play.
Yilber Diaz, RHP, Diamondbacks
2023 minors: 4.82 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 102 2/3 IP, 58 BB, 140 K
2024 minors: 3.23 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 47 1/3 IP, 19 BB, 70 K
Diaz was a little shaky out of the gate this year, but his 1.84 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 12.0 K/9 over his past five starts have clearly brought his numbers down to size. He gets extra credit, too, for doing it at Double-A Amarillo, which is by far the most hitter-friendly venue in the already hitter-friendly Texas League. It helps that he misses bats at such a high rate, pairing a near triple-digit fastball that he locates well up in the zone with a pair of hammer breaking balls.
Logan Evans, RHP, Mariners
2023 minors: 0.60 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 15 IP, 2 BB, 15 K
2024 minors: 1.23 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 51 1/3 IP, 15 BB, 47 K
Evans is different from basically every other pitcher on this list in that he hasn't been much of a bat-misser, but his early season work nonetheless has evaluators drooling over his potential. He was only drafted in Round 12 last year but was aggressively assigned to Double-A and has gone on to lead the level in ERA. He throws strikes consistently, gets most of his contact on the ground, and has developed a sweeper that's capable of getting chases even though it hasn't led to big strikeout numbers yet.
George Klassen, RHP, Phillies
2024 minors: 0.30 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 30 IP, 8 BB, 47 K
Another 2023 draft pick who already looks like a steal, Klassen was a mess of a reliever in college, but the Phillies have harnessed his triple-digit fastball, remaking his mechanics to help him throw strikes consistently. Now that control is no longer an issue, the stuff really stands out, with his cutter and slider also capable of generating whiffs. He's clearly too good for Low-A, having allowed just one earned run in his 30 innings of work there, but a mild shoulder injury stalled him for a couple weeks. He has since returned but is building back up to a starter's workload, having thrown a combined five innings across two appearances.
Quinn Mathews, LHP, Cardinals
2024 minors: 2.27 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 43 2/3 IP, 14 BB, 70 K
When the Cardinals selected Mathews in the fourth round of last year's draft, the floor is what stood out most, giving him a possible future as a fifth starter just by virtue of him throwing so many strikes. But the Cardinals went to work on his mechanics, upping his fastball by several miles per hour, and with its optimal shape for registering whiffs at the top of the zone, he's become a bat-misser of the highest order. The real test will come at the higher levels, but Mathews boasts a Spencer Strider-like 19 percent swinging-strike rate between Low- and High-A.
Zebby Matthews, RHP, Twins
2023 minors: 3.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 105 1/3 IP, 15 BB, 112 K
2024 minors: 1.59 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 45 1/3 IP, 2 BB, 55 K
First Quinn, now Zebby. No pair of Mat(t)hews has so captured my attention since Cory and Eric. What's most impressive about the Twins right-hander is that he's issued just two walks across his eight starts, throwing 70 percent of his pitches for strikes. At 24, he's a bit old to have just reached Double-A, but his performance hasn't slipped in the slightest since making the leap on May 9. It's not like he's lacking in stuff either, his fastball peaking at 98 mph with extra extension on his 6-foot-5 frame.
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Cade Povich, LHP, Orioles
2023 minors: 5.04 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 126 2/3 IP, 66 BB, 171 K
2024 minors: 2.35 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 53 2/3 IP, 19 BB, 71 K
Povich was probably the most well-known of these prospects coming into this year, but his 2023 ended on such a sour note that I wouldn't say he was highly regarded. He's been among the top performers at Triple-A this year, though, which has him trending toward a big-league debut sometime this summer. Neither his 62 percent strike rate nor his 12 percent swinging-strike rate is particularly impressive, but he's maintained a high strikeout rate with a five-pitch arsenal that he sequences intelligently.
Winston Santos, RHP, Rangers
2023 minors: 6.29 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 98 2/3 IP, 26 BB, 88 K
2024 minors: 1.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 42 2/3 IP, 17 BB, 58 K
Though Santos is repeating High-A this year, the performance is night-and-day different. A new grip on his slider has turned it into enough of a weapon to offset a potentially plus-plus fastball. It's a similar story to Freddy Peralta back when he was climbing the ranks of the Brewers system, except that Santos throws strikes at a much more impressive 68 percent rate.
Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, Braves
2023 minors: 2.49 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 65 IP, 16 BB, 55 K
2024 minors: 1.80 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 45 IP, 10 BB, 51 K
2024 majors: 5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Though Schwellenbach is of course still a prospect, I had initially planned to forgo him here since he just made his big-league debut Wednesday. But then fellow Brave Owen Murphy was lost to Tommy John surgery, opening up a spot. Schwellenbach stands out most for his control, having put together a George Kirby-like 70 percent strike rate across his eight minor-league starts, and despite only two of those starts coming above A-ball, he looked plenty comfortable in his big-league debut, throwing 68 percent of his pitches for strikes. His fastball doesn't profile as a bat-misser, but he cranks it up to 98 and has four pitches to go along with it.
Jonah Tong, RHP, Mets
2023 minors: 6.00 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 21 IP, 22 BB, 38 K
2024 minors: 0.90 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 40 IP, 16 BB, 62 K
Tong's fastball only registers in the low-to-mid-90s, but what it lacks in pure velocity it more than makes up for in vertical break. It's the optimal shape for the modern game, eating up hitters at the top of the zone, and it's led to an 18 percent whiff rate across two levels of A-ball so far. His control got away from him a little bit when he first moved up to High-A, but he seems to have settled in now. There are shades of Joe Ryan here, but Tong's secondary arsenal is much further along than Ryan's ever was in the minors.
Matt Wilkinson, LHP, Guardians
2023 minors: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
2024 minors: 1.59 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 9 BB, 79 K
A former Little League World Series standout known as "Tugboat," Wilkinson falls short by traditional evaluation methods, his fastball sitting at about 90 mph and his secondary arsenal being very much a work in progress. But between his long limbs and low release point, the fastball comes in at a plane that hitters simply can't touch, which has led to some bonkers strikeout numbers in the lower minors, including a 15-strikeout game on April 25. It's the sort of gimmick that will either make or break Wilkinson, with every step up the ladder requiring him to prove himself all over again, but judging by his 69 percent strike rate and 19 percent swinging-strike rate between Low- and High-A, it's going well so far.