Bowl projections: All the matchups entering conference championships (2024)

The College Football Playoff picture has come into sharper focus with Michigan's decisive win over Ohio State and upset losses by LSU (to ) and Clemson (to South Carolina).

The reverberations from those results were felt in the New Year's Six matchups and beyond, as we are pretty much down to the conference championships before the bowl lineup is set once and for all.

ESPN college football reporters Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach break down the bowl picture with their latest projections for all the games, including their analysis of the CFP matchups, which teams helped and hurt their causes the most, and which matchup they'd most like to see.

All times Eastern.

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Jan. 9, time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan

CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. USC
Schlabach: Georgia vs. USC

CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. TCU
Schlabach: Michigan vs. TCU

CFP breakdown

Bonagura: Here's how it breaks down going into championship weekend: Georgia and Michigan are virtual playoff locks. Take that to the bank. Losses for either could impact seeding, but that's really the only thing that's on the line in the SEC and Big Ten title games. TCU is also undefeated and in a similar spot, but if the Horned Frogs lose in the Big 12 title game, they would risk being passed by one-loss Ohio State. USC's postseason began against Notre Dame and the Trojans took care of business, setting up a win-and-in Pac-12 championship game against Utah, the only team it has lost to this season. You'll hear a lot from Big Ten country this week about how Ohio State deserves to be in, but that won't happen if USC and TCU both win.

Schlabach: The final week of the regular season produced plenty of surprising results, none more so than Michigan's emphatic 45-23 victory at rival Ohio State on Saturday. The Wolverines looked tougher and more complete than the Buckeyes, and they're now in the driver's seat for one of the four CFP spots. Michigan will be a heavy favorite against Purdue in next week's Big Ten championship game. Defending national champion Georgia remains my No. 1 team, after the Bulldogs finished unbeaten in the regular season for the second straight year with a 37-14 rout of Georgia Tech. Georgia faces LSU in the SEC championship game. After falling 38-23 at Texas A&M on Saturday night, the Tigers are unlikely to get into the CFP even if they upset the Bulldogs in Atlanta. Michigan is my No. 2 team, followed by No. 3 TCU and No. 4 USC. The Horned Frogs completed a magical regular season by blasting Iowa State 62-14 at home. They'll play Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game Saturday. USC moved a step closer to the CFP with a 38-27 win against Notre Dame. The Trojans face Utah in the Pac-12 championship game Friday night. If USC wins, it's in.

Team that helped itself the most

Bonagura: Michigan. The Wolverines are in. It's hard to come up with a scenario in which they get bypassed for a playoff spot, even if they lose in the Big Ten championship game. Their dominant win against Ohio State -- coupled with LSU's loss -- made that possible.

Schlabach: Going into The Game, I thought Ohio State's offense had too much firepower for Michigan, which had struggled to throw the ball in recent weeks. Boy, I was wrong. The Wolverines piled up 530 yards of offense, including 252 rushing. Donovan Edwards finished with 216 rushing yards, the second most ever by a Michigan player against the Buckeyes, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Tim Biakabutuka Jr. had 313 yards against Ohio State in 1995.

New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Tennessee

Matchup Schlabach would love to see

Clemson and Tennessee in the Orange Bowl would be a fun matchup. Neither team is happy with the way the season ended, especially after South Carolina halted the Tigers' seven-game winning streak in the series with a 31-30 upset Saturday. The loss ended Clemson's 40-game home winning streak. The Gameco*cks also beat Tennessee two weeks ago.

Dec. 31

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Alabama

Jan. 2

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Tulane

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Washington
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Washington

Bowl season

Dec. 16

HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11:30 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. UAB
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. UAB

Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia Southern vs. UConn
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Bowling Green

Dec. 17

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. UCF
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Cincinnati

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: North Carolina Central vs. Jackson State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Memphis vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Air Force

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington State vs. Boise State

LendingTree Bowl
Hanco*ck Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. BYU

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oregon State vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. Mississippi State

Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: SMU vs. Utah State
Schlabach: South Alabama vs. Utah State

Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Liberty vs. Troy
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. North Texas

Dec. 20

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wyoming vs. Toledo
Schlabach: San Jose State vs. Toledo

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Eastern Michigan

Dec. 21

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Troy

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Kansas vs. UCF

Dec. 23

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. South Alabama
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. UNLV

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Houston vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Middle Tennessee State vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Middle Tennessee State vs. San Diego State

Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: BYU vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Marshall vs. Ohio

Dec. 27

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Eastern Michigan vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Southern Miss

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Houston vs. Fresno State

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Missouri vs. Syracuse
Schlabach: Memphis vs. Florida

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Wisconsin

Dec. 28

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Louisville vs. SMU

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Florida
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Arkansas

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Florida State vs. Oregon
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Oregon

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma State
Schlabach: Missouri vs. Oklahoma State

Dec. 29

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Florida State vs. Texas Tech

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas vs. Utah
Schlabach: Texas vs. Utah

Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: NC State vs. Maryland
Schlabach: Duke vs. Maryland

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Duke vs. UCLA
Schlabach: NC State vs. UCLA

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. South Carolina

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.
Bonagura: San Jose State vs. Bowling Green
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Rice

Dec. 31

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Kentucky

Jan. 2

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Arkansas
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Ole Miss

Matchup Bonagura would love to see

There aren't many reasons to get genuinely excited to watch a 6-6 SEC team in a bowl game against a mediocre Big Ten team, but if Arkansas gets matched up with Illinois and former Razorbacks coach Bret Bielema, sign me up.

Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Purdue vs. LSU
Schlabach: Purdue vs. LSU

Team that hurt its cause the most

Bonagura: Thanks for playing, LSU. The Tigers' deflating loss to Texas A&M removes them from playoff consideration, setting up the most anticlimactic SEC championship game of the playoff era. Regardless of the outcome, Georgia is in and LSU is out, which brings into play an almost conceivable reality: The SEC champion might not be in the playoff, which is what will happen if LSU upsets the Bulldogs.

Schlabach: The Buckeyes' CFP chances took a big hit with their loss to Michigan, but Ohio State still might have an argument for inclusion if TCU or USC falls next weekend. Even if LSU upsets No. 1 Georgia in Atlanta, however, the Tigers might not have any argument for one of the four spots. Their 15-point loss at Texas A&M was inexcusable. Texas A&M had lost its previous six SEC games and wasn't moving the ball on anyone. But Saturday night, the Aggies ran for 274 yards on 50 carries, and LSU's defense didn't have an answer.